In Prannoy Roy's book on India's electoral history, a look at why 'landslides' can be tricky for pollsters to correctly forecast

The Verdict
Decoding India’s Elections
Book Excerpt 

India has more landslide elections perhaps than any other country. This simple rule makes forecasting elections in India the ‘safest’ country to make predictions—and so we dubbed ourselves ‘landslide forecast experts’. We are now becoming a little worried about this nickname. Landslides are theoretically easier to forecast than close fights. Even with a sampling error, a forecast in a landslide election will still at least name the correct winner—even if the number of seats is wildly off.

One reason for the large number of landslides is a combination of statistics and passion. Statistically, a first-past-the-post electoral system tends to generate large and stable majorities. When it is combined with a fragmented Opposition, landslides are the norm. In addition, we have encountered a deep passion and belief in the power of their vote among people we have interviewed. The most common sentiment we come across sitting at chai shops in the . . .